The Pros & Cons of Powertrain Tech for Haulers
With transport responsible for 29% of global energy consumption, now is the time for heavy-duty fleet managers to start the transition from fossil fuels to new powertrain technologies. Shell explores the top options.
By Dr. Wolfgang Warnecke, Shell’s Chief Scientist
No matter where in the world your fleet operates, you can’t afford to ignore the energy transition.
Most countries now have ambitious plans to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions. The US aims to cut its emissions by 26% before 20251, India by 33% before 20302, and the European Union by 60% by 2050.3
Because transport is a major contributor to carbon dioxide, fleet managers and drivers everywhere must find ways to reduce their use of fossil fuels – and through that cut their greenhouse emissions.
What are your best options?
BATTERY ELECTRIC OR FUEL CELL ELECTRIC VEHICLES
The positives
From a hauler’s perspective, electric vehicles (EVs) or fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) are probably the greenest of the three fuel types discussed in this article. Their emissions are as close as possible to zero because the ‘fuel’ is based on renewable electricity.
Electric engines also have one of the highest well-to-wheel (WtW) efficiency ratings of any fuel type. It’s in the range of 60%, compared to around 35% to 40% for diesel, depending on use cycle and vehicle size4. WtW indicates how much of the energy in the vehicle’s fuel is delivered to its wheels.
The challenges
The range of EV commercial vehicles depends on the battery size. For some bigger vehicles, batteries can be as heavy as up to 10 tons (depending on the range required) – a significant portion of the potential payload.
In many places, the charging infrastructure commercial fleets need simply doesn’t exist. These two factors limit both the load and range of commercial EVs.
Investing in EVs
Battery weight concerns shouldn’t deter individuals or companies from investing in electric vehicles now. For short-haul journeys – for instance, the kind made by municipal service fleets – EVs are already the most energy-efficient option.
As battery technology matures, the available range will only get better. And most major markets have committed to switching their power generation to renewables in the near future.
But there is a catch when it comes to battery electric: unless power companies switch from fossil fuels to renewables, the transport sector will simply be outsourcing its emissions to the electricity producers.
FUEL CELLS
The positives
For long-haul operations especially, fuel cells powered by hydrogen are very attractive. They deliver the best range, fast refuelling and low drivetrain weight – and are almost emission-free (if the hydrogen required is from renewable electricity).
The fuel cell works by converting the chemical energy in hydrogen, combined with oxygen, into electricity. The only waste product in this process is harmless water vapor.
To get the best environmental impact from this switch, and to prepare yourselves commercially for the future, fleets should consider converting to EVs or FCEVs when you feasibly can. Be sure to consider practicalities, such as:
- Use cases
- The range of current EVs
- The availability of charging infrastructure
- Cost
The challenges
Fuel cell vehicles are not yet readily available, although several manufacturers have announced plans and displayed prototypes. The range and availability of charging infrastructure are similar challenges to those faced by traditional EVs.
BIOFUELS AND E-FUELS
The positives
Today, plant-based biofuels are mainly used as supplements, added to conventional fuels to help fleets hit their sustainability targets.
In America, the biodiesel content required by law in fuel varies from state to state. In Minnesota, for example, diesel fuel sold between April and September must contain at least 20% biodiesel (B20), reduced to 5% (B5) during the rest of the year.
In Europe, by contrast, the legal maximum is fixed at 7%. These limits are intended to prevent damage to engines but also to stop competition from fuel producers driving up food prices.
The challenges
Both the capd and the limited amount of raw material – including food crops – mean that today’s biofuels will never be more than one of a number of ways to marginally reduce a fleet’s greenhouse-gas emissions. However, this may change.
Fuel companies are developing the second generation of biofuels. Produced from non-food crops and other sources, these range from hydrotreated vegetable oil (HVO), through advanced ethanol to advanced biodiesel type of fuels.
GREEN FUEL
The positives
These fuels can be produced in far greater quantities than current biofuels and don’t have the same negative environmental impact. If we can perfect their production processes, these second-generation biofuels promise abundant green fuel which can be distributed using the existing infrastructures and be used in today’s vehicles.
E-FUELS
The positives
E-fuels are another possible new energy source. With renewably-generated electricity, the fuel manufacturer uses electrolysis to produce hydrogen.
Next, it takes carbon dioxide filtered from the air and combines it with the hydrogen to generate a syn-gas – the feed for a reaction to produce ‘synthetic’ hydrocarbons, similar to those found in standard fuels.
The result is a carbon-neutral liquid fuel with a similar energy content – and consequently a similar range – to today’s fuels. It could be used in existing vehicles and distributed through the infrastructure we have today.
However, e-fuels are still in early development. Current experimental e-fuels have a well-to-wheel energy efficiency of only around 12% 4,5. This must improve before the fuels can be commercially viable.
CNG AND LNG
The positives
Today, if you want to cut your emissions, the easiest gas-based fuel available is probably compressed natural gas (CNG). It’s readily available, produces less greenhouse gases than most alternatives, and retooling your vehicles to use it is relatively inexpensive.
In the longer term, liquid natural gas (LNG) is likely to be both more cost effective and greener in many use cases. LNG has a very high energy-density. This lets you store more energy in your tank, which helps increase range.
It also has the benefit of being highly efficient at delivering power to the wheels. An LNG engine can deliver 40% of overall efficiency5 compared to the same range as diesel.
The challenges
Yet there are complications. For example, LNG must be kept at 161°C below zero, both storage and refuelling are more difficult than with other fuels. Tanks for LNG must be double-walled, insulated, and meet rigorous safety standards in certain countries.
If LNG is to become a viable part of the heavy-duty fleet fuel mix, fleet and fuel providers will have to invest heavily in infrastructure. They will also have to work together to train drivers how to handle LNG safely.
Fleets have several options from which to choose should they seek to modernize their fleet and reduce their carbon footprint. However, each choice presents advantages and challenges, which can vary depending on where a fleet operates, the local infrastructure, as well as the needs, goals and resources of the fleet.
Fleets will need to evaluate and weigh these advantages and disadvantages before making a decision. Many fleets choose to take small steps, trialing new technologies to better understand the results, maintenance needs, etc. before investing heavily in powertrain technology.
Related videos
Sustainability agenda's impact on commercial fleets, Sharbel Luzuriaga
Title: Sustainability agenda's impact on commercial fleets, Sharbel Luzuriaga
Duration: {5:10} minutes
Description:
Sharbel Luzuriaga, project manager at Kline Market Research Energy, explains how his analysts see the future of commercial vehicles, and the timelines for the multi-stage process for the adoption of Electric Vehicles and sustainable technologies. This will be seen through efforts to improve ICEs, adoption of lower-viscosity engine oils, the emergence of synthetic ‘e-fuels’; and ultimately, as fleets switch to a multi-fuel technology ecosystem in the future, the innovation of lubricants. This presentation was delivered at Shell Rimula Ultimate Stopover 2019, held in Barcelona.
Emerging forces transforming the commercial vehicle industry, Sharbel Luzuriaga, Transcript
[Presentation title]
Emerging forces transforming the commercial vehicle industry
Sharbel Luzuriaga, Kline Group, Energy
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Bright, uplifting music plays as the video begins.
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Transition to shot of Sharbel at front of a room of people, in front of a yellow backdrop which reads “Collaborative Thinking to Power Fleets of Tomorrow”. There is a white podium at the front of the room, with a large Shell logo on the front. There are 10 people shown in the shot, all sitting at desks facing the front of the room. There are water bottles and papers on the desks. There are TVs positioned at both sides of the of the front of the room, showing colourful squares and a Venn diagram.
[Sharbel Luzuriaga]
One of the major
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[Sharbel Luzuriaga]
forces shaping every single aspect on today's
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Sharbel Luzuriaga
Project Manager
Kline Group, Energy
[Sharbel Luzuriaga]
economy including transport and the vehicle fleet segment is environment and sustainability.
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The commercial transport industry is under increasing pressure
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Transport sector generates 20% of total emissions in 2017
Within transport, passenger and freight road transport are two segments that together account for >70% of CO2 emissions.
Global CO2 Emissions by Activity, 2017
Building, 11%
Transport, 20%
Industry, 22%
Power, 42%
Other, 5%
Kline
[Sharbel Luzuriaga]
According to the International Energy Agency, about 20% of the total CO2 emissions in 2017 were ascribed to the transport sector. Within that, passenger and fleet road transport are the two segments that alone are contributing about 70% of total CO2 emissions.
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[Sharbel Luzuriaga]
It is a very long road, a very difficult task for the industry.
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Governmental Support in Key Countries
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China’s Government Regulations and Plans to Promote New Energy Vehicle
The U.S. Diesel Emissions Reduction Act (DERA), and U.S. DOE SuperTruck program
Germany’s National Program for Electric Mobility – the government set the goal to put 1 million electric vehicles on German roads by 2020
Japanese Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry (METI) promoted several campaigns to shift the focus from diesel fuel to electric/hybrid development for vehicles
[Sharbel Luzuriaga]
Over the past decade we are witnessing a major transformation in the mindset of the consumers. Governments around the globe are echoing this public concern.
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Transition to white slide with three photos: one of a commercial vehicle, one of a medium commercial vehicle, and one of a fleet of heavy commercial vehicles. There are also vehicle brand logos shown underneath each photo.
[Sharbel Luzuriaga]
Electric vehicles are not the only alternative to improving
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[Sharbel Luzuriaga]
the carbon footprint in the commercial or in the transport industry.
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Transition back to white slide with three photos: one of a commercial vehicle, one of a medium commercial vehicle, and one of a fleet of heavy commercial vehicles. There are also vehicle brand logos shown underneath each photo.
[Sharbel Luzuriaga]
There are other technologies that are suitable, depending on the application. Natural gas, hydrogen, petroleum gas, are all suitable alternatives to electric vehicles. The adoption of each of those technologies
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will be a multi-stage process and certainly some technology will be more suitable,
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Transition back to white slide with three photos: one of a commercial vehicle, one of a medium commercial vehicle, and one of a fleet of heavy commercial vehicles. There are also vehicle brand logos shown underneath each photo.
[Sharbel Luzuriaga]
depending on the application. For example, in the case of light and medium commercial vehicles, we believe that those are going to be the early adopters of battery-electric plug-in vehicles simply because of the online retail boom that is driven by companies like Amazon, for example.
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And also because they can capitalise on the infrastructure that is already being built for passenger car vehicles.
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Transition back to white slide with three photos: one of a commercial vehicle, one of a medium commercial vehicle, and one of a fleet of heavy commercial vehicles. There are also vehicle brand logos shown underneath each photo.
[Sharbel Luzuriaga]
As we go into the medium-duty and heavy-duty commercial vehicles for long-haul distance we see that technologies like natural gas and hydrogen fuel cell batteries are more suitable for these types of applications.
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[Sharbel Luzuriaga]
These require a lot of energy capacity or density and those technologies are believed to be the most suitable to be used in these kinds of applications. Certainly the penetration of alternative technologies, powertrain technologies in the commercial vehicle fleet
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Transition back to white slide with three photos: one of a commercial vehicle, one of a medium commercial vehicle, and one of a fleet of heavy commercial vehicles. There are also vehicle brand logos shown underneath each photo.
[Sharbel Luzuriaga]
will be an application-driven phenomenon.
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Barriers
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Barriers
Underdeveloped charging/fueling infrastructure
Premium sticker prices
Driving range
High distribution and storage costs (CNG/LNG)
[Sharbel Luzuriaga]
The very well-known barriers are here. Dealing with the still-poor infrastructure, not only charging but also fuel infrastructure in the case of natural gas fuels. Driving range is also a matter of concern coupled with the still sometimes-prohibitive high cost of those vehicles. Certainly there are issues related to the high distribution and storage costs, as well.
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[Sharbel Luzuriaga]
There is also a higher level of complexity in the case of commercial fleets. Operational efficiency. Safety considerations.
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[Sharbel Luzuriaga]
These are all factors preventing a higher penetration
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[Sharbel Luzuriaga]
of electric vehicles. However, the transition to low and zero-emission vehicles
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Camera pans out and shows the full audience at their desks, with Sharbel standing at the white podium speaking against the yellow backdrop. The TV screens are visible, showing information related to the presentation.
[Sharbel Luzuriaga]
motivates innovation.
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[Sharbel Luzuriaga]
Efforts are focusing on continuing to improve internal combustion engine technologies by different ways. Improving the air drag, tyre resistance, lower-sulfur fuels.
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Camera pans out and shows half of the audience, with Sharbel standing at the white podium speaking against the yellow backdrop. One of the TVs is visible, showing information related to the presentation.
[Sharbel Luzuriaga]
Using lower-viscosity engine oils that help to reduce friction and improving fuel consumption and emission levels as well.
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Transition to white slide titled ‘Transportation’, with images and text boxes across the screen related to the presentation.
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Transportation
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Alternative Means Transport
Use Different Vehicles
Use Different Fuels
Emission Levels
High Emission
Low Emission
Zero Emission
EV
HEV: Hybrid Electric Vehicle
PHEV: Plug-in Electric Vehicle
BEV: Battery Electric Vehicle
FCV: Hydrogen Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle
ICE
Diesel, gasoline
Natural Gas: Compressed (CNG) and Liquified (LNG) Natural Gas
LPG: Liquified Petroleum Gas
Biofuels
Synthetic Fuels also known as e-fuels (renewable energy)
Kline
[Sharbel Luzuriaga]
On the front of the different alternative fuels we can also see the emergence of synthetic fuels, which are also called E-fuels. They are coming from renewable energy and and have a carbon-neutral profile.
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[Sharbel Luzuriaga]
The ultimate goal, the road ahead, is zero emissions,
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[Sharbel Luzuriaga]
carbon-neutral solutions.
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[Sharbel Luzuriaga]
All the OEMs nowadays are targeting
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Transition to white slide titled ‘Accelerating innovation in fields like powertrain technologies’. The slide shows two graphs and drawings of a heavy commercial vehicle and various fuel supplies.
[Text displays]
Accelerating innovation in fields like powertrain technologies
[Text displays]
Most-Likely EV Penetration in On-Highway Commercial Vehicles for Select Countries, 2040
2018
Brazil
United States
Japan
China
Germany
Canada
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
EV
ICE
2040
Brazil
United States
Japan
China
Germany
Canada
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
BEV-a
PHEV
HEV
ICE
High-Emission Vehicles
Low-Emission Vehicles
Zero-Emission Vehicles
a- Include FCV
KLINE
[Sharbel Luzuriaga]
the full adoption of battery electric vehicles but also hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles.
[Visual transition]
Zoom in on 2040 graph.
[Sharbel Luzuriaga]
In the case of China and Germany we can anticipate a higher penetration of battery-electric, full-electric vehicles in the commercial fleets. While in the case of countries like Canada, U.S. and Brazil we have seen more variety in the technologies that are being implemented.
[Visual transition]
Camera zooms in on Sharbel speaking in front of the yellow backdrop. No audience members are visible.
[Sharbel Luzuriaga]
Those are the full range of hybrids, plug-in,
[Visual transition]
Transition back to slide, with focus on the 2040 graph.
[Sharbel Luzuriaga]
and battery-electric vehicles.
[Visual transition]
Camera zooms in on Sharbel speaking in front of the yellow backdrop. No audience members are visible.
[Sharbel Luzuriaga]
Certainly, there is no one-size-fits-all solution in the foreseeable period of time.
[Visual transition]
Transition to slide titled ‘The Road Ahead’. The slide is white, with blue shading and accents. There are diagrams of commercial vehicles on the left-hand side and boxes with bulleted text on the right-hand side. The first of the three text boxes is highlighted in dark blue.
[Text displays]
The road ahead
[Text displays]
The Road Ahead
2030-2040
LEV and ZEV diffusion gain momentum as barriers are gradually surpassed.
Fleets opt to purchase EVs in LCV for short distance urban deliveries.
Hydrogen FCV and CNG are projected to become prominent in HCV.
GDMO/finished lubricants will be increasingly regarded as key elements of an “ecosystem of solutions” addressing the needs of mix-fuel connected fleets.
2020-2030
Energy efficiency and increasing regulatory pressure is leading the technology diversification in commercial fleets.
CNG/LNG, but also LPG, gaining similar prominence
Oil drain interval is the main factor driving GDMO demand
Data-driven tailored maintenance management
2000-2019
Increasingly stringent sustainability requirements prompting the emergence of novel technologies
EVs remain a relatively small market with limited influence on HDMO demand
KLINE
[Sharbel Luzuriaga]
However, Kline anticipates that the future ecosystem will be a multi-fuel technology that will be triggering further innovation,
[Visual transition]
Camera pans out and shows the full audience, with Sharbel standing at the white podium speaking against the yellow backdrop. Both of the TVs are visible, showing information related to the presentation.
[Sharbel Luzuriaga]
especially in the case of lubricants.
[Visual transition]
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[Sharbel Luzuriaga]
It will trigger innovation for newer formulation approaches also how vehicle fleets are served and how the commercial operators
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Camera pans out and shows half of the audience, with Sharbel standing at the white podium speaking against the yellow backdrop.
[Sharbel Luzuriaga]
run their businesses.
[Background music plays]
Upbeat tune plays during final transition from Emmanuel’s speech to concluding slides.
[Visual transition]
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[Text displays]
Shell Rimula
Heavy Duty Diesel Engine Oil
For more information visit:
www.shell.com/rimula
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[Background music plays]
Light, digital-sounding tune plays to end the presentation.
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Copyright Shell International Limited 2019
1 Milman, O. (2019). US emissions set to miss 2025 target in Paris climate change deal, research finds. [online] the Guardian. Available at: https://www.theguardian.com/science/2016/sep/26/us-climate-change-emissions-miss-2025-target-research [Accessed 17 July 2019].
2 The Economic Times. (2019). India pledges up to 33% cut in emissions by 2030. [online] Available at: https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/india-pledges-up-to-33-cut-in-emissions-by-2030/articleshow/49200647.cms [Accessed 17 Jul. 2019].
3 Climate Action – European Commission. (2019). Transport - Climate Action - European Commission. [online] Available at: https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/international/paris_protocol/transport_en [Accessed 17 Jul. 2019].
4 The Road to Sustainable Fuels For Zero Emissions Mobility, Dr. Wolfgang Warnecke et al., Royal Dutch Shell, 39th International Vienna Motor Symposium, 2018
5 “The Power-to-Liquid (PTL) pathways assume renewable power generation in a favourable region, with low temperature electrolysis (LTE) hydrogen production, CO2 capture from air (DAC) and fuel synthesis. The PTL fuel production (incl. hydrogen production, CO2 capture and chemical synthesis) achieves an overall efficiency of 35 %. Transport and distribution drops the chain efficiency to this point only marginally to 34 %. Losses for filling the tank are assumed to be negligible. A diesel internal combustion engine is assumed to have a 36 % efficiency leading to a WtW efficiency of 12 % for this PTL pathway. For a gasoline engine with an efficiency assumed of 30 % the overall pathway’s efficiency would be just 10%.”
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